Resources

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White Papers

WW for Business: The Real ROI of GLP-1s

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Talks

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Talks

Value-Based Contracting 101: Avoiding Pitfalls & Exploiting Opportunities

May 2024 | Navigating the complex world of value-based contracting poses challenges for many organizations, who may be unaware of potential pitfalls.

 

 

 

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Talks

How to Ensure You Are Paid for the Value You Create

March 2022 | Value-based contracts impose risk both on providers and payers. The appropriate structure of a contract is an important component of mitigating your risk as a provider and ensuring that you are paid correctly for the value that you create for a payer. 

 

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Talks

Making the Case for Your Value Proposition to Payers

November 2021 | You have developed a great new device, founded a winning healthcare startup, obtained FDA certification, but have you thought about how you will be paid for the intervention? Don’t ignore reimbursement until it’s too late. 

 

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Events

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Events

Business Group on Health Annual Conference

Arbital Health attended the Business Group on Health conference April 9, 2024 - April 12, 2024

 

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Events

HLTH Las Vegas 2024

Arbital Health will be attending the HLTH Las Vegas conference October 20, 2024 - October 23, 2024

 

 

 

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Textbooks

Textbooks

Group Insurance, Seventh Edition

2016 | Group insurance is an effective and efficient means of providing protection from the adverse financial impact of unforeseen events to individuals who share a common bond. Group insurance, as used throughout this text, means a benefit program where coverage is provided to a group of individuals. 

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Textbooks

Managing Healthcare Intervention Programs

2014 | Since its publication in 2008, Managing and Evaluating Healthcare Intervention Programs has become the premier textbook for actuaries and other healthcare professionals interested in the financial performance of healthcare interventions. 

 

 

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Textbooks

Healthcare Risk Adjustment and Predictive Modeling

2011 | This text is listed on the Course of Reading for SOA Fellowship study in the Group & Health specialty track.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Publications

Publication

Shared Savings Model Risk in the MSSP Program

2022 | The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) introduced the Medicare Shared Savings Program (MSSP) for accountable care organizations (ACOs) as part of the Affordable Care Act.

 

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Publication

Payment Accuracy in Value-Based Care Contracts

2021 | The health care industry is undergoing a transformation as it focuses not only on health care treatment but also on population health management.

 

 

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Publication

Value-Based Contracting in Health Care

2022 | Chapter by Ian Duncan

 

 

 

 

 

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Healthcare Risk Adjustment
and Predictive Modeling

2018 | Second Edition By Ian Duncan. It’s an exciting time to be a data scientist.

 

 

 

 

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Publication

Alternative Predictive Models for Medicare Patient Cost

2018 | As health care expenditures increase, patient cost mitigation becomes more essential. Cost mitigation through intervention programs such as accountable care organizations relies on the ability to accurately predict patient risk, which is notoriously difficult because of highly skewed data.

 

 

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Publication

Value-Based Contracting in Health Care

2022 | Written by Ian Duncan, FROM THE EDITED VOLUME Health Insurance; Edited by Aida Isabel Tavares

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Predicting High Need End-of-Life in Medicare Patients through Machine Learning, Ian Duncan and Tamim Ahmed. 

2023 | FROM THE EDITED VOLUME. Palliative Care - Current Practice and Future Perspectives 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Publication

Patient Post-discharge Transitions and Inpatient Readmissions Impose Costly Burdens for Employers and Carriers

2021 | Although the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services has focused on Medicare hospital readmissions for select diagnoses through the Hospital Readmissions Reduction program, there is no similar initiative for employers, who account for the majority of the 48% of private health care spending in the United States. 

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Publication

Medicare Cost at End of Life

2019 | As the Medicare program struggles to control expenditures, there is increased focus on opportunities to manage patient populations more efficiently and at a lower cost. A major source of expense for the Medicare program is beneficiaries at end of life. 

 

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Publication

Population-Based Return on Investment of Deploying Transient Elastography

2021 | Mazen Noureddin, MD, Andrew Mackenzie, BS, Elaine Zhao, BS, Scott C. Howell, DO, Michael Tunkelrott, MBA, Ian Duncan, PhD.

 

 

 

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Publication

Polypharmacy, Medication Possession, and Deprescribing of Potentially Non-Beneficial Drugs in Hospice Patients

2020 | Patients frequently have comorbidities that when combined with their primary diagnosis qualifies the patient for hospice. 

 

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Publication

Augmented Intelligence: Enhancing the Roles of Health Actuaries and Health Economists for Population Health Management.

2018 | Ian Duncan, Karen Fitzner, and Karen Ezekiel Handmaker.

 

 

 

 

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Publication

Racial Disparities in the Burden of End-Stage Renal Disease due to Diabetes among Medicare Beneficiaries.

2018 | NAMINO M. GLANTZ; IAN DUNCAN; TAMIM AHMED; DAVID KERR.

 

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Publication

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in the Burden and Cost of Diabetes for US Medicare Beneficiaries. 

2019 | Namino M. Glantz, nglantz@sansum.org, Ian Duncan, Tamim Ahmed, Ludi Fan, Beverly L. Reed, Samaneh Kalirai, and David Kerr.

 

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Publication

A Comparative Analysis Of Chronic And Nonchronic Insured Commercial Member Cost Trends. 

2013 | Robert Bachler FSA, FCAS, MAAA,Ian Duncan FSA, FIA, FCIA, MAAA & Iver Juster MD.

 

 

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Publication

Testing Alternative Regression Frameworks for Predictive Modeling of Health Care Costs, I. 

2016 | Duncan,M. Loginov & M. Ludkovski.

 

 

 

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A Risk-Based Evaluation Methodology for Cost Effectiveness of Chronic Condition Health Management

2012 | Programs, Ian Duncan FSA, FIA, FCIA, MAAA,Bryan Beatty MA, MS & Brian Day EdD.

 

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Mining Health Claims Data for Assessing Patient Risk

2012 | Ian G. Duncan.

 

 

 

 

 

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An introduction to care management interventions and their implications for actuaries. 

2012 | Henry G Dove, FSA Ian Duncan. 

 

 

 

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Publication

Understanding Patient Risk and its Impact on Chronic and Non-Chronic Member Trends 

2002 | Ian Duncan, Mita Lodh, Gregory D. Berg, and David Mattingly.

 

 

 

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A prediction model for targeting low-cost, high-risk members of managed care organizations

2003 | Henry G Dove 1, Ian Duncan, Arthur Robb. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Publication

Comparing Model Error Between a Standard Risk Adjustment Model and a Disease-Specific Risk Adjustment Model 

2020 | Andrew Mackenzie, Elaine Zhao, Ian Duncan, and Jiaming Wang. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Publication

Insurance Status and Biological and Psychosocial Determinants of Cardiometabolic Risk Among Mexican-Origin U.S. Hispanic / Latino Adults with Type 2 Diabetes

2020 | Namino M. Glantz, Jessikah M. Morales, Wendy C. Bevier, Arianna Larez, Charis B. Hoppe, Ian Duncan, Andrew Mackenzie, and David Kerr.

 

 

 

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Publication

Understanding the impact of five major determinants of health (genetics, biology, behavior, psychology, society/environment) on type 2 diabetes in U.S. Hispanic/Latino families

2020 | Jessikah Morales, Namino Glantz, Arianna Larez, Wendy Bevier, Mary Conneely, Ludi Fan, Beverly Reed, Carlos Alatorre, Rosirene Paczkowski, Tamim Ahmed, Andrew Mackenzie, Ian Duncan & David Kerr.

 

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Publication

Effects of a Population Health Community-Based Palliative Care Program on Cost and Utilization

2019 | Lori Yosick, Robert E. Crook, Maria Gatto, Terri L. Maxwell, Ian Duncan, Tamim Ahmed, and Andrew Mackenzie. 

 

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