--- title: Payment Accuracy in Value-Based Care Contracts description: November 2021 | Mackenzie A, Wang J, Teppema S, and Duncan I --- Publication # Payment Accuracy in Value-Based Care Contracts [ Arbital Health ](https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/author/arbital-health) Nov 6, 2021 [mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/payment-accuracy-in-value-based-care-contracts&utm_medium=social&utm_source=email%20&body=Check%20out%20https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/payment-accuracy-in-value-based-care-contracts&utm_medium=social&utm_source=email](mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/payment-accuracy-in-value-based-care-contracts&utm_medium=social&utm_source=email%20&body=Check%20out%20https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/payment-accuracy-in-value-based-care-contracts&utm_medium=social&utm_source=email) [Publication](https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/tag/publication) Published: November 06, 2021 Publisher: Austin Publishing Group By: Mackenzie A, Wang J, Teppema S, and Duncan I   Abstract Reimbursement for health care services is transferring more risk away from payers and toward health care providers in the form of Alternative Payment Models (APMs), also known as Value-Based Care (VBC) models. VBC models cover a wide variety of forms but all include guarantees by providers of services to improve quality of care and/or reduce cost. Types of risk include performance risk, contract design risk or stochastic risk (because of the random variation in health care services and costs). A form of contract risk that can be a significant driver of cost is model risk, defined as the probability that the savings calculated at contract reconciliation will deviate from the actual savings generated. To estimate the degree of risk we quantify the potential variance in outcomes in a naïve population prior to intervention and the components that could affect outcomes, using examples of maternity and type 2 diabetes. This analysis has implications for both participants in, and designers of value-based contracts.   [ Read Full Publication ](https://austinpublishinggroup.com/medical-sciences/fulltext/ams-v6-id1056.pdf)   ### View More News & Insights from the Arbital Health Team: Publication ### [Patient Post-discharge Transitions and Inpatient Readmissions Impose Costly Burdens for Employers and Carriers](https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/patient-post-discharge-transitions-and-inpatient-readmissions-impose-costly-burdens-for-employers-and-carriers) Arbital Health Dec 3, 2021 Publication ### [Value-Based Contracting in Health Care](https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/value-based-contracting-in-health-care) Arbital Health Feb 2, 2022 Publication ### [Shared Savings Model Risk in the MSSP Program](https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/shared-savings-model-risk-in-the-mssp-program) Arbital Health Jan 14, 2022 ### Sign-Up for Arbital Health Email Updates Unlock a wealth of valuable insights and stay ahead of the curve with Arbital Health's exclusive email updates. 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