--- title: Predicting High Need End-of-Life in Medicare Patients through Machine Learning description: July 2023 | Ian Duncan and Tamim Ahmed --- Publication # Predicting High Need End-of-Life in Medicare Patients through Machine Learning [ Arbital Health ](https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/author/arbital-health) Jul 21, 2023 [mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/predicting-high-need-end-of-life-in-medicare-patients-through-machine-learning&utm_medium=social&utm_source=email%20&body=Check%20out%20https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/predicting-high-need-end-of-life-in-medicare-patients-through-machine-learning&utm_medium=social&utm_source=email](mailto:?subject=Check%20out%20https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/predicting-high-need-end-of-life-in-medicare-patients-through-machine-learning&utm_medium=social&utm_source=email%20&body=Check%20out%20https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/predicting-high-need-end-of-life-in-medicare-patients-through-machine-learning&utm_medium=social&utm_source=email) [Publication](https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/tag/publication) Published: July 21, 2023 Publisher: Intech Open By: Ian Duncan and Tamim Ahmed   Abstract Patients are often at risk of consuming significant medical resources during the last 6 to 12 months of life, without improving their life expectancy. We develop a model for predicting patients likely to die within the next 6 to 12 months based on administrative claims and demographic data. Standard statistical models as well as newer machine learning approaches are used to identify target patients. Patients identified through the model are candidates for palliative care of hospice care. Timely intervention with appropriate care has been shown to both improve the quality of life of such patients while also reducing resource consumption. We demonstrate the use of the model by incorporating in an economic model of an intervention program, showing that intervention in the highest predicted probability cohort can provide a positive return on investment, provided the program is targeted at the highest-risk patients.   [ Read Full Publication ](https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/1152752)   ### View More News & Insights from the Arbital Health Team: Publication ### [Mining Health Claims Data for Assessing Patient Risk](https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/mining-health-claims-data-for-assessing-patient-risk) Arbital Health Jan 1, 2012 Publication ### [Testing Alternative Regression Frameworks for Predictive Modeling of Health Care Costs](https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/testing-alternative-regression-frameworks-for-predictive-modeling-of-health-care-costs) Arbital Health Jan 8, 2016 Publication ### [A prediction model for targeting low-cost, high-risk members of managed care organizations](https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/a-prediction-model-for-targeting-low-cost-high-risk-members-of-managed-care-organizations) Arbital Health May 9, 2003 ### Sign-Up for Arbital Health Email Updates Unlock a wealth of valuable insights and stay ahead of the curve with Arbital Health's exclusive email updates. 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All Rights Reserved 2025. ![](https://px.ads.linkedin.com/collect/?pid=6309914&fmt=gif) ```json { "@context" : "https://schema.org", "@type" : "BlogPosting", "author" : { "@type" : "Person", "name" : "Arbital Health", "url" : "https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/author/arbital-health" }, "dateModified" : "2025-02-06T18:22:50.531Z", "datePublished" : "2023-07-21T07:00:00.000Z", "headline" : "Predicting High Need End-of-Life in Medicare Patients through Machine Learning", "mainEntityOfPage" : { "@id" : "https://arbitalhealth.com/blog/predicting-high-need-end-of-life-in-medicare-patients-through-machine-learning", "@type" : "WebPage" }, "publisher" : { "@type" : "Organization", "logo" : { "@type" : "ImageObject", "url" : "https://arbitalhealth.com/hubfs/Branding%20Assets/Arbital_Logo_020524-1.png" }, "name" : "Arbital Health" } } ```